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Championship · Matchday 44Wednesday 21 April · 19:45 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Swansea City3rd place
WAT 27%X 27%SWA 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 179 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Swansea City 1.8 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Swansea City 0.3, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.5
Over 2.546%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Swansea City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.72X27%3.64246%2.19
Double chance
1X54%1.84X273%1.371273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Swansea City1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Swansea City – Watford1 September 20262-0
Watford – Swansea City31 January 20260-2
Swansea City – Watford23 August 20251-1
Watford – Swansea City12 March 20251-0
Swansea City – Watford5 November 20241-0
Watford – Swansea City6 March 20241-1