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Championship · Matchday 41Wednesday 7 April · 19:45 · The Hawthorns
West Bromwich Albion5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Derby County23rd place
WBA 60%X 24%DER 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • West Bromwich Albion lead by 117 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: West Bromwich Albion 2.0 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: West Bromwich Albion 0.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • If West Bromwich Albion score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.8
Over 2.545%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X24%4.08216%6.24
Double chance
1X84%1.19X241%2.471276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.545%2.21Under 2.555%1.83BTTS yes45%2.23BTTS no55%1.81

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: West Bromwich Albion · Columns: Derby County1-0 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – West Bromwich Albion9 September 20260-1
Derby County – West Bromwich Albion23 January 20261-1
West Bromwich Albion – Derby County13 September 20250-1
West Bromwich Albion – Derby County21 April 20251-3
Derby County – West Bromwich Albion26 December 20242-1
Derby County – West Bromwich Albion27 December 20211-0