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La Liga · Matchday 8Saturday 10 October · 15:15 · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alavés11th place
Full time1-2Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Result correct
Atlético Madrid2nd place
ALA 30%X 28%ATM 42%

What does the market say?

AlavésDrawAtlético MadridRinvalo30%28%42%
Market22%25%52%

✓ Agree · both back Atlético Madrid

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 122 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 2.4 points per game, Alavés 1.4.
  • If Alavés score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atlético Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.33X28%3.54242%2.40
Double chance
1X58%1.71X270%1.431272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.548%2.10Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alavés · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-2 probability 8.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Alavés – Atlético Madrid10 October 20261-2
Atlético Madrid – Alavés18 January 20261-0
Alavés – Atlético Madrid30 August 20251-1
Alavés – Atlético Madrid3 May 20250-0
Atlético Madrid – Alavés23 November 20242-1
Alavés – Atlético Madrid21 April 20242-0