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La Liga · Matchday 8Saturday 10 October · 20:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Villarreal9th place
RMA 66%X 20%VIL 14%

What does the market say?

Real MadridDrawVillarrealRinvalo66%20%14%
Market69%17%14%

✓ Agree · both back Real Madrid

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 104 rating points.
  • Real Madrid take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.3, Villarreal 0.7.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.1
Over 2.568%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.52X20%4.89214%7.28
Double chance
1X86%1.16X234%2.921280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.568%1.48Under 2.532%3.10BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Villarreal1-0 probability 6.8% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Madrid – Villarreal10 October 20261-0
Villarreal – Real Madrid24 January 20260-2
Real Madrid – Villarreal4 October 20253-1
Villarreal – Real Madrid15 March 20251-2
Real Madrid – Villarreal5 October 20242-0
Villarreal – Real Madrid19 May 20244-4