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La Liga · Matchday 8Friday 9 October · 20:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Full time1-1Prediction wrong
Espanyol14th place
MAL 33%X 30%ESP 38%

What does the market say?

MálagaDrawEspanyolRinvalo33%30%38%
Market34%30%37%

✓ Agree · both back Espanyol

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Espanyol -0.0, Málaga -0.8.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.2
Over 2.538%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Espanyol win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.06X30%3.38238%2.65
Double chance
1X62%1.61X267%1.481270%1.42
Goals
Over 2.538%2.62Under 2.562%1.62BTTS yes46%2.19BTTS no54%1.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Espanyol1-1 probability 14.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
MálagaLDLDL

Head to head

Málaga – Espanyol9 October 20261-1