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Premier League · Matchday 15Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Bournemouth8th place
ARS 58%X 25%BOU 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 133 rating points.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.549%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.73X25%3.99217%5.84
Double chance
1X83%1.21X242%2.371275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes48%2.06BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Bournemouth1-0 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arsenal – Bournemouth11 April 20261-2
Bournemouth – Arsenal3 January 20262-3
Arsenal – Bournemouth3 May 20251-2
Bournemouth – Arsenal19 October 20242-0
Arsenal – Bournemouth4 May 20243-0
Bournemouth – Arsenal30 September 20230-4