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Premier League · Matchday 15Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · Anfield
Liverpool5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Leeds United11th place
LIV 52%X 26%LEE 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 81 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Liverpool 1.8 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Leeds United -0.3.
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.549%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.91X26%3.78221%4.76
Double chance
1X79%1.27X248%2.101274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.552%1.94BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Liverpool · Columns: Leeds United1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

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Head to head

Liverpool – Leeds United1 January 20260-0
Leeds United – Liverpool6 December 20253-3
Leeds United – Liverpool17 April 20231-6
Liverpool – Leeds United29 October 20221-2
Liverpool – Leeds United23 February 20226-0
Leeds United – Liverpool12 September 20210-3