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Premier League · Matchday 15Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · The Coventry Building Society Arena
Coventry City16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Aston Villa10th place
COV 26%X 26%AVL 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Aston Villa lead by 117 rating points.
  • If Coventry City score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.553%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.86X26%3.78248%2.10
Double chance
1X52%1.91X274%1.351274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Coventry City · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

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