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Premier League · Matchday 15Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Chelsea4th place
MCI 62%X 22%CHE 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 143 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Chelsea 0.0.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.0
Over 2.562%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.61X22%4.45215%6.52
Double chance
1X85%1.18X238%2.641278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.562%1.60Under 2.538%2.66BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Chelsea2-1 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Manchester City12 April 20260-3
Manchester City – Chelsea4 January 20261-1
Manchester City – Chelsea25 January 20253-1
Chelsea – Manchester City18 August 20240-2
Manchester City – Chelsea17 February 20241-1
Chelsea – Manchester City12 November 20234-4