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Premier League · Matchday 15Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Nottingham Forest19th place
SUN 32%X 29%NFO 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.6, Sunderland -0.2.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.542%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.17X29%3.48240%2.52
Double chance
1X60%1.66X268%1.461271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.74BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Nottingham Forest1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Nottingham Forest24 April 20260-5
Nottingham Forest – Sunderland27 September 20250-1