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Premier League · Matchday 15Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Manchester United17th place
CRY 26%X 26%MUN 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester United lead by 95 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester United 0.1, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.80X26%3.84248%2.10
Double chance
1X52%1.91X274%1.361274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester United – Crystal Palace1 March 20262-1
Crystal Palace – Manchester United30 November 20251-2
Manchester United – Crystal Palace2 February 20250-2
Crystal Palace – Manchester United21 September 20240-0
Crystal Palace – Manchester United6 May 20244-0
Manchester United – Crystal Palace30 September 20230-1