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Premier League · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 16:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Brighton3rd place
ARS 54%X 26%BHA 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 85 rating points.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Brighton 0.2.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.547%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X26%3.81220%4.98
Double chance
1X80%1.25X246%2.161274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Brighton1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
ArsenalLWWWW

Head to head

Brighton – Arsenal19 September 20263-0
Brighton – Arsenal4 March 20260-1
Arsenal – Brighton27 December 20252-1
Brighton – Arsenal4 January 20251-1
Arsenal – Brighton31 August 20241-1
Brighton – Arsenal6 April 20240-3