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Premier League · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 16:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Brentford6th place
CHE 43%X 27%BRE 30%

Prediction

  • If Chelsea score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Brentford score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.3
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.32X27%3.66230%3.39
Double chance
1X70%1.42X257%1.761273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.34BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Brentford1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brentford – Chelsea18 September 20263-0
Chelsea – Brentford17 January 20262-0
Brentford – Chelsea13 September 20252-2
Brentford – Chelsea6 April 20250-0
Chelsea – Brentford15 December 20242-1
Brentford – Chelsea2 March 20242-2