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Premier League · Matchday 38Sunday 30 May · 16:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Manchester City2nd place
SUN 17%X 23%MCI 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 259 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 1.8 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Sunderland -0.2.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.554%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.84X23%4.43260%1.66
Double chance
1X40%2.52X283%1.211277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.554%1.87Under 2.546%2.15BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Sunderland20 September 20265-3
Sunderland – Manchester City1 January 20260-0
Manchester City – Sunderland6 December 20253-0