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Premier League · Matchday 6Saturday 10 October · 12:30 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Leeds United11th place
ARS 63%X 23%LEE 13%

What does the market say?

ArsenalDrawLeeds UnitedRinvalo63%23%13%
Market68%20%12%

✓ Agree · both back Arsenal

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 153 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 1.0, Leeds United -0.2.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.7
Over 2.546%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.58X23%4.30213%7.45
Double chance
1X87%1.16X237%2.731277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes43%2.33BTTS no57%1.75

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Leeds United2-1 probability 9.3% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arsenal – Leeds United10 October 20262-1
Leeds United – Arsenal31 January 20260-4
Arsenal – Leeds United23 August 20255-0
Arsenal – Leeds United1 April 20234-1
Leeds United – Arsenal16 October 20220-1
Arsenal – Leeds United8 May 20222-1