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Premier League · Matchday 6Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Brentford6th place
AVL 37%X 28%BRE 35%

What does the market say?

Aston VillaDrawBrentfordRinvalo37%28%35%
Market36%27%37%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Aston Villa 37%, market Brentford 37%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Brentford score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.4
Over 2.553%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.71X28%3.60235%2.84
Double chance
1X65%1.54X263%1.591272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Brentford2-2 probability 5.9% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Brentford10 October 20262-2
Aston Villa – Brentford1 February 20260-1
Brentford – Aston Villa23 August 20251-0
Brentford – Aston Villa8 March 20250-1
Aston Villa – Brentford4 December 20243-1
Aston Villa – Brentford6 April 20243-3