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Premier League · Matchday 6Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Full time5-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Bournemouth8th place
CHE 37%X 28%BOU 35%

What does the market say?

ChelseaDrawBournemouthRinvalo37%28%35%
Market57%22%21%

✓ Agree · both back Chelsea

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.556%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.70X28%3.59235%2.85
Double chance
1X65%1.54X263%1.591272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.28BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Bournemouth5-1 probability 0.5% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Bournemouth10 October 20265-1
Chelsea – Bournemouth30 December 20252-2
Bournemouth – Chelsea6 December 20250-0
Chelsea – Bournemouth14 January 20252-2
Bournemouth – Chelsea14 September 20240-1
Chelsea – Bournemouth19 May 20242-1