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Premier League · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 14:00 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Full time3-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✕ Missed
Nottingham Forest19th place
CRY 33%X 29%NFO 39%

What does the market say?

Crystal PalaceDrawNottingham ForestRinvalo33%29%39%
Market36%28%36%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Nottingham Forest 39%, market Crystal Palace 36%

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.2, Crystal Palace -0.5.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.07X29%3.46239%2.60
Double chance
1X62%1.63X267%1.481271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Nottingham Forest3-1 probability 2.9% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest11 October 20263-1
Nottingham Forest – Crystal Palace1 February 20261-1
Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest24 August 20251-1
Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest5 May 20251-1
Nottingham Forest – Crystal Palace21 October 20241-0
Nottingham Forest – Crystal Palace30 March 20241-1