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Premier League · Matchday 6Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Full time0-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Brighton3rd place
SUN 29%X 27%BHA 44%

What does the market say?

SunderlandDrawBrightonRinvalo29%27%44%
Market32%27%41%

✓ Agree · both back Brighton

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 120 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.0 points per game, Sunderland 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.7, Sunderland -0.0.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.49X27%3.72244%2.25
Double chance
1X56%1.80X271%1.401273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.06BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Brighton0-2 probability 7.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Sunderland – Brighton10 October 20260-2
Sunderland – Brighton14 March 20260-1
Brighton – Sunderland20 December 20250-0