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Premier League · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 16:30 · Anfield
Liverpool5th place
Full time0-3Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Manchester City2nd place
LIV 29%X 27%MCI 44%

What does the market say?

LiverpoolDrawManchester CityRinvalo29%27%44%
Market36%26%38%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester City

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 112 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 3.0 points per game, Liverpool 1.8.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game away.
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.556%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.40X27%3.74244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X271%1.421273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.556%1.77Under 2.544%2.30BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Liverpool · Columns: Manchester City0-3 probability 3.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Liverpool – Manchester City11 October 20260-3
Liverpool – Manchester City8 February 20261-2
Manchester City – Liverpool9 November 20253-0
Manchester City – Liverpool23 February 20250-2
Liverpool – Manchester City1 December 20242-0
Liverpool – Manchester City10 March 20241-1