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Premier League · Matchday 6Monday 12 October · 20:00 · The Coventry Building Society Arena
Coventry City16th place
Full time4-1Prediction wrong
Newcastle United12th place
COV 27%X 26%NEW 47%

What does the market say?

Coventry CityDrawNewcastle UnitedRinvalo27%26%47%
Market29%26%45%

✓ Agree · both back Newcastle United

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Newcastle United lead by 111 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Newcastle United 1.6 points per game, Coventry City 0.6.
  • If Coventry City score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.551%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Newcastle United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.70X26%3.85247%2.13
Double chance
1X53%1.89X273%1.371274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Coventry City · Columns: Newcastle United4-1 probability 0.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Coventry City – Newcastle United12 October 20264-1