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Premier League · Matchday 12Sunday 29 November · 16:30 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Manchester City2nd place
ARS 46%X 28%MCI 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.17X28%3.53226%3.90
Double chance
1X74%1.34X254%1.851272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.545%2.25Under 2.555%1.80BTTS yes50%2.02BTTS no50%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Arsenal19 April 20262-1
Arsenal – Manchester City21 September 20251-1
Arsenal – Manchester City2 February 20255-1
Manchester City – Arsenal22 September 20242-2
Manchester City – Arsenal31 March 20240-0
Arsenal – Manchester City8 October 20231-0