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Premier League · Matchday 12Saturday 28 November · 17:30 · Portman Road
Ipswich Town14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Aston Villa10th place
IPS 24%X 24%AVL 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Aston Villa lead by 163 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Ipswich Town 1.0.
  • If Ipswich Town score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.9
Over 2.563%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.16X24%4.08251%1.94
Double chance
1X49%2.06X276%1.321276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Under 2.537%2.68BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.69

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ipswich Town · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Ipswich Town15 February 20251-1
Ipswich Town – Aston Villa29 September 20242-2