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Premier League · Matchday 12Sunday 29 November · 12:00 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Liverpool5th place
EVE 30%X 28%LIV 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 93 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Liverpool 1.8 points per game, Everton 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Everton -0.2.
  • If Everton score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.37X28%3.59242%2.35
Double chance
1X58%1.74X270%1.421272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Everton · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Everton – Liverpool19 April 20261-2
Liverpool – Everton20 September 20252-1
Liverpool – Everton2 April 20251-0
Everton – Liverpool12 February 20252-2
Everton – Liverpool24 April 20242-0
Liverpool – Everton21 October 20232-0