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Premier League · Matchday 12Sunday 29 November · 14:05 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Newcastle United13th place
BHA 62%X 23%NEW 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 131 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.4 points per game, Newcastle United 1.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.2, Newcastle United -0.7.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.62X23%4.41216%6.36
Double chance
1X84%1.19X238%2.611277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.50BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Brighton2 May 20263-1
Brighton – Newcastle United18 October 20252-1
Brighton – Newcastle United4 May 20251-1
Newcastle United – Brighton19 October 20240-1
Newcastle United – Brighton11 May 20241-1
Brighton – Newcastle United2 September 20233-1