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Premier League · Matchday 12Friday 27 November · 20:00 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Chelsea4th place
NFO 40%X 28%CHE 32%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.6, Chelsea 0.0.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.52X28%3.60232%3.08
Double chance
1X68%1.48X260%1.661272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.06BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Nottingham Forest4 May 20261-3
Nottingham Forest – Chelsea18 October 20250-3
Nottingham Forest – Chelsea25 May 20250-1
Chelsea – Nottingham Forest6 October 20241-1
Nottingham Forest – Chelsea11 May 20242-3
Chelsea – Nottingham Forest2 September 20230-1