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Premier League · Matchday 16Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Manchester United17th place
ARS 64%X 23%MUN 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 183 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.551%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.57X23%4.41214%7.29
Double chance
1X86%1.16X236%2.751277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Manchester United2-0 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arsenal – Manchester United25 January 20262-3
Manchester United – Arsenal17 August 20250-1
Manchester United – Arsenal9 March 20251-1
Arsenal – Manchester United4 December 20242-0
Manchester United – Arsenal12 May 20240-1
Arsenal – Manchester United3 September 20233-1