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Premier League · Matchday 16Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Aston Villa10th place
CHE 46%X 27%AVL 28%

Prediction

  • If Chelsea score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.19X27%3.73228%3.62
Double chance
1X72%1.38X254%1.841273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Chelsea4 March 20261-4
Chelsea – Aston Villa27 December 20251-2
Aston Villa – Chelsea22 February 20252-1
Chelsea – Aston Villa1 December 20243-0
Aston Villa – Chelsea27 April 20242-2
Chelsea – Aston Villa24 September 20230-1