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Premier League · Matchday 16Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Everton14th place
NFO 45%X 28%EVE 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.6, Everton -0.2.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Everton score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.542%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X28%3.53226%3.79
Double chance
1X74%1.36X255%1.831272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.41Under 2.559%1.71BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Everton1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nottingham Forest – Everton30 December 20250-2
Everton – Nottingham Forest6 December 20253-0
Nottingham Forest – Everton12 April 20250-1
Everton – Nottingham Forest29 December 20240-2
Everton – Nottingham Forest21 April 20242-0
Nottingham Forest – Everton2 December 20230-1