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Premier League · Matchday 16Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Crystal Palace18th place
SUN 45%X 28%CRY 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sunderland -0.2, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.546%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Sunderland win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.23X28%3.60227%3.65
Double chance
1X73%1.38X255%1.811272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Crystal Palace1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Crystal Palace17 January 20262-1
Crystal Palace – Sunderland13 September 20250-0