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Premier League · Matchday 16Saturday 19 December · 15:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Newcastle United12th place
BRE 49%X 26%NEW 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brentford -0.1, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • If Brentford score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brentford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.06X26%3.79225%3.99
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.941274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

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Head to head

Newcastle United – Brentford7 February 20262-3
Brentford – Newcastle United9 November 20253-1
Newcastle United – Brentford2 April 20252-1
Brentford – Newcastle United7 December 20244-2
Brentford – Newcastle United19 May 20242-4
Newcastle United – Brentford16 September 20231-0