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Premier League · Matchday 30Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sunderland20th place
ARS 73%X 19%SUN 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 277 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 90% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score38%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.38X19%5.3429%11.52
Double chance
1X91%1.10X227%3.651281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes38%2.63BTTS no62%1.61

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Sunderland2-0 probability 15.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Arsenal12 September 20260-2
Arsenal – Sunderland7 February 20263-0
Sunderland – Arsenal8 November 20252-2