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Premier League · Matchday 30Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Leeds United11th place
NEW 40%X 28%LEE 31%

Prediction

  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Newcastle United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.48X28%3.54231%3.18
Double chance
1X69%1.46X260%1.671272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.550%1.98BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Leeds United1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leeds United – Newcastle United14 September 20264-1
Newcastle United – Leeds United7 January 20264-3
Leeds United – Newcastle United30 August 20250-0
Leeds United – Newcastle United13 May 20232-2
Newcastle United – Leeds United31 December 20220-0
Leeds United – Newcastle United22 January 20220-1