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Premier League · Matchday 30Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Manchester United17th place
MCI 61%X 23%MUN 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 165 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 1.8 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.65X23%4.35216%6.14
Double chance
1X84%1.19X239%2.551277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.560%1.68Under 2.540%2.47BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 10.3%

Form

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Head to head

Manchester United – Manchester City13 September 20260-1
Manchester United – Manchester City17 January 20262-0
Manchester City – Manchester United14 September 20253-0
Manchester United – Manchester City6 April 20250-0
Manchester City – Manchester United15 December 20241-2
Manchester City – Manchester United3 March 20243-1