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Premier League · Matchday 30Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Bournemouth7th place
BRE 35%X 28%BOU 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Brentford -0.1.
  • If Brentford score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.4
Over 2.553%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.86X28%3.57237%2.70
Double chance
1X63%1.59X265%1.541272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Bournemouth1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bournemouth – Brentford12 September 20262-2
Bournemouth – Brentford3 March 20260-0
Brentford – Bournemouth27 December 20254-1
Bournemouth – Brentford15 March 20251-2
Brentford – Bournemouth9 November 20243-2
Bournemouth – Brentford11 May 20241-2