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Premier League · Matchday 30Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Coventry City16th place
BHA 70%X 19%COV 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 195 rating points.
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.2, Coventry City -0.4.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Coventry City score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.8
Over 2.561%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.42X19%5.23210%9.56
Double chance
1X90%1.12X230%3.381281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.55BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Coventry City2-0 probability 11.7%

Form

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Head to head

Coventry City – Brighton13 September 20260-5