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Premier League · Matchday 30Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Aston Villa10th place
NFO 42%X 28%AVL 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.6, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.39X28%3.60230%3.30
Double chance
1X70%1.44X258%1.721272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest12 September 20261-2
Nottingham Forest – Aston Villa12 April 20261-1
Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest3 January 20263-1
Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest5 April 20252-1
Nottingham Forest – Aston Villa14 December 20242-1
Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest24 February 20244-2