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Premier League · Matchday 33Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Coventry City16th place
AVL 60%X 24%COV 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Aston Villa lead by 117 rating points.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Coventry City score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.555%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X24%4.21217%6.04
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.481276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Coventry City1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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