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Premier League · Matchday 33Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sunderland20th place
NFO 51%X 27%SUN 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.6, Sunderland -0.2.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.544%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.97X27%3.70222%4.52
Double chance
1X78%1.28X249%2.031273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Nottingham Forest24 April 20260-5
Nottingham Forest – Sunderland27 September 20250-1