TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 33Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Elland Road
Leeds United11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Liverpool5th place
LEE 32%X 28%LIV 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 81 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Liverpool 1.8 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Leeds United -0.3.
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.11X28%3.53240%2.53
Double chance
1X60%1.65X268%1.471272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leeds United · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Liverpool – Leeds United1 January 20260-0
Leeds United – Liverpool6 December 20253-3
Leeds United – Liverpool17 April 20231-6
Liverpool – Leeds United29 October 20221-2
Liverpool – Leeds United23 February 20226-0
Leeds United – Liverpool12 September 20210-3