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Premier League · Matchday 33Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth7th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arsenal1st place
BOU 27%X 28%ARS 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 133 rating points.
  • Arsenal take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.5
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.66X28%3.63245%2.21
Double chance
1X55%1.82X273%1.381272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.547%2.14Under 2.553%1.88BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Arsenal1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

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Head to head

Arsenal – Bournemouth11 April 20261-2
Bournemouth – Arsenal3 January 20262-3
Arsenal – Bournemouth3 May 20251-2
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Arsenal – Bournemouth4 May 20243-0
Bournemouth – Arsenal30 September 20230-4