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Premier League · Matchday 33Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Manchester City2nd place
CHE 26%X 26%MCI 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 143 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Chelsea 0.0.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.8
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.90X26%3.89249%2.06
Double chance
1X51%1.95X274%1.341274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.559%1.68Under 2.541%2.47BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

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Head to head

Chelsea – Manchester City12 April 20260-3
Manchester City – Chelsea4 January 20261-1
Manchester City – Chelsea25 January 20253-1
Chelsea – Manchester City18 August 20240-2
Manchester City – Chelsea17 February 20241-1
Chelsea – Manchester City12 November 20234-4