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Premier League · Matchday 14Saturday 5 December · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Crystal Palace18th place
AVL 56%X 25%CRY 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Aston Villa lead by 115 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Aston Villa -0.3, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.554%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.78X25%4.04219%5.23
Double chance
1X81%1.24X244%2.281275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Crystal Palace1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Aston Villa7 January 20260-0
Aston Villa – Crystal Palace31 August 20250-3
Crystal Palace – Aston Villa25 February 20254-1
Aston Villa – Crystal Palace23 November 20242-2
Crystal Palace – Aston Villa19 May 20245-0
Aston Villa – Crystal Palace16 September 20233-1