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Premier League · Matchday 14Saturday 5 December · 15:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sunderland20th place
NEW 47%X 27%SUN 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Newcastle United lead by 62 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Newcastle United 1.2 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.551%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Newcastle United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X27%3.69226%3.90
Double chance
1X74%1.35X253%1.901273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.04BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

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Head to head

Newcastle United – Sunderland22 March 20261-2
Sunderland – Newcastle United14 December 20251-0