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Premier League · Matchday 14Saturday 5 December · 15:00 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Tottenham8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Arsenal1st place
TOT 19%X 25%ARS 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 223 rating points.
  • Arsenal take 2.4 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Tottenham 0.2.
  • If Tottenham score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.7
Over 2.547%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.37X25%4.02257%1.77
Double chance
1X43%2.30X281%1.231275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Tottenham · Columns: Arsenal0-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Tottenham – Arsenal22 February 20261-4
Arsenal – Tottenham23 November 20254-1
Arsenal – Tottenham15 January 20252-1
Tottenham – Arsenal15 September 20240-1
Tottenham – Arsenal28 April 20242-3
Arsenal – Tottenham24 September 20232-2