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Premier League · Matchday 14Saturday 5 December · 15:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Manchester City2nd place
BRE 24%X 25%MCI 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 128 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Brentford -0.1.
  • If Brentford score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.556%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.20X25%3.94251%1.97
Double chance
1X49%2.03X276%1.311275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes58%1.74BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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Head to head

Manchester City – Brentford9 May 20263-0
Brentford – Manchester City5 October 20250-1
Brentford – Manchester City14 January 20252-2
Manchester City – Brentford14 September 20242-1
Manchester City – Brentford20 February 20241-0
Brentford – Manchester City5 February 20241-3