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Premier League · Matchday 14Saturday 5 December · 15:00 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Brighton3rd place
NFO 31%X 27%BHA 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 148 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.4 points per game, Nottingham Forest 0.2.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.27X27%3.66242%2.38
Double chance
1X58%1.73X269%1.441273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.550%1.98BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Brighton1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brighton – Nottingham Forest1 March 20262-1
Nottingham Forest – Brighton30 November 20250-2
Nottingham Forest – Brighton1 February 20257-0
Brighton – Nottingham Forest22 September 20242-2
Brighton – Nottingham Forest10 March 20241-0
Nottingham Forest – Brighton25 November 20232-3