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Premier League · Matchday 14Saturday 5 December · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Liverpool5th place
CHE 36%X 28%LIV 36%

Prediction

  • If Chelsea score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.75X28%3.62236%2.78
Double chance
1X64%1.56X264%1.571272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Liverpool – Chelsea9 May 20261-1
Chelsea – Liverpool4 October 20252-1
Chelsea – Liverpool4 May 20253-1
Liverpool – Chelsea20 October 20242-1
Liverpool – Chelsea31 January 20244-1
Chelsea – Liverpool13 August 20231-1