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Premier League · Matchday 17Saturday 26 December · 12:30 · Villa Park
Aston Villa9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Leeds United11th place
AVL 44%X 28%LEE 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.28X28%3.55228%3.58
Double chance
1X72%1.39X256%1.781272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.546%2.15Under 2.554%1.87BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Leeds United1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Leeds United21 February 20261-1
Leeds United – Aston Villa23 November 20251-2
Aston Villa – Leeds United13 January 20232-1
Leeds United – Aston Villa2 October 20220-0
Leeds United – Aston Villa10 March 20220-3
Aston Villa – Leeds United9 February 20223-3