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Premier League · Matchday 17Saturday 26 December · 20:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Manchester City2nd place
NEW 20%X 23%MCI 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 184 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 47% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.0
Over 2.561%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.00X23%4.26257%1.77
Double chance
1X43%2.30X280%1.251277%1.31
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Newcastle United21 February 20262-1
Newcastle United – Manchester City22 November 20252-1
Manchester City – Newcastle United15 February 20254-0
Newcastle United – Manchester City28 September 20241-1
Newcastle United – Manchester City13 January 20242-3
Manchester City – Newcastle United19 August 20231-0